Daily Alert: For Friday 15th April 2016

Mark Nugent2016 H1, April 2016, Daily Alert

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Video Below
Fundamentals and Sentiment – New Information (Economic Calendar)

Numbers are quoted in the following format: (actual; expectation; prior.)

Thursday – The Bank of England kept interest rates at 0.5%, unchanged and as expected, by a unamimous vote. The Asset Purchase Facility (QE) was also kept unchanged at 375B and this too was agreed unanimously. The statement said that “referendum effects are likely to make macroeconomic and financial market indicators harder to interpret over the next few months, and the Committee is likely to react more cautiously to data news over this period than would normally be the case.”

In the US, Core CPI m/m missed (0.1%; 0.2%; -0.2%).

Fundamentals and Sentiment – Market Reaction

Risk-on. Equities up across the globe (except FTSE100) and UK, German and US 10 year bonds all up on the week (prices down). Oil and commodities continue up. The USD index is up but there has been some weakening during the day. The Euro index is down for the 7th consecutive day. The GBP index drops today and gives back all the week’s gains. The JPY index strengthens slightly after three days of weakness. CAD dips after four days of strength. AUD has its fifth day of gains. NZD reverses but remains within its channel.

Fundamentals and Sentiment – Financial Media

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-14/qatar-s-oil-freeze-letter-to-norway-reveals-logic-of-doha-deal

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-imf-g20-cenbank-analysis-idUSKCN0XB0AN

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Trades

1. JPY Strength

No change – I will buy where the last buyers were seen – around 110.6.

2. GBP Weakness

There is no real negative news today on the GBP to propel the EURGBP upwards. Monitor.

3. OPEC Meeting

The CAD is still strong despite the USDCAD pair not giving a decent setup so I look at all the CAD pairs. If not useful today, this will be useful in H2 2016 and 2017 as the oil price rises as the supply demand balance switches to under-supply.

4. USD

No great technical setups.

Tomorrow

China GDP and Industrial Production; Canadian Manufacturing Sales.

Video

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