Daily Alert: For Friday 15th January 2016

Mark Nugent2016 H1, Daily Alert, January 2016

Today’s slides are HERE.

Today’s Economic News

The markets are calm but the Vix moves up…

  • Vix = 25.22. A strong move up today, reasons unclear. There is no move towards more risk-off, stock markets have not dropped significantly and JPY has not risen significantly.
  • WTI essentially flat.
  • China stock markets up today (CSI300 +2.08 and Shanghai +1.97%). S&P and Dow both up, as is FTSE100. Euro markets all slightly down or flat. No drama really.
  • JPY index very slightly up.

I think it is reasonable to trade the plan. I am not sure why the Vix is up today and if any commentator has a rationale they are not telling.

Economic Calendar

In the UK, the BoE kept the interest rate and the QE programme unchanged. However, Q4 2015 and Q1 2016 GDP estimates were lowered and the full implications of new data would be factored into the February Inflation Report. Maybe black clouds ahead…

Australian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate both exceeded expectation, as did US Unemployment Claims.

20150115 (1)Current Opportunities

1. USDJPY (reversal of JPY safe haven strengthening). The current price is edging up towards my buy price. I need to wait.

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2. SEK (belief that the Riksbank will weaken the Krona). CPI came in at 0.1% y/y to hardly tear-away inflation. None-the-less, the SEK remains strong and the Riksbank have concerns about that. Both EURSEK and USDSEK reside within small channels. I will consider going long upon a breakout form the channel.

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3. USDSGD (weakening emerging market currency). Still consolidating…

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4. EURUSD – Waiting for the channel breakout…

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5. USDCAD (oil weakness) – Looking at the H4 chart for a pullback before going long…

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Major News Items for Tomorrow

US Core Retail Sales.