Daily Alert: For Friday 25th March 2016

Mark Nugent2016 H1, Daily Alert, March 2016

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Video Below
Fundamentals and Sentiment – New Information (Economic Calendar)

We were risk-on today.

Wednesday – NZ Trade Balance was excellent at USD339m vs USD75m expectation. US Crude inventories were 9.4m barrels vs expectation of 2.5m barrels.
Thursday – UK Retail Sales came in at -0.4% vs a forecast of -0.7%.

Fundamentals and Sentiment – Market Reaction

The Vix remains below 15. Stock markets have been struggling for a couple of days now. Yields are mixed across the German, UK and US bond markets. Oil drops for the third day and commodities are down generally. The USD index rises for the 5th consecutive day. The JPY index has strengthened slightly, CAD takes a hit because of oil, AUD is down due to commodities and the NZD is sideways.

Fundamentals and Sentiment – Financial Media

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-23/pound-s-16-billion-of-option-trades-envisage-drop-to-1980s-lows
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-23/resurgent-dollar-hits-asian-stock-outlook-as-crude-extends-slump
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Trades

1.GBP Weakness

I closed my GBPUSD trade at 10pm GMT last night as it had moved through the support line and Easter is approaching. This trade yielded a gain of 2.49% on a risk of 1%.
I also closed my GBPNZD trade at the same time due to yesterday being a sideways day for the pair. This pair yielded a gain of 0.35% on a risk of 0.5%.

2. JPY Weakness

Stop at breakeven. The USDJPY is edging up slowly. I will exit tonight at 10pm GMT if not before.

3. The FTSE100

I will revisit this instrument next week.

4. Oil

As oil falls for the third day, USDCAD edges up. I will exit tonight at 10pm GMT if not before. It would be nice to see all the post-Fed USD decline reverse by a regain of the 1.3330 level.

5. Watch List

The EURUSD short worked. The S&P500 will be revisited next week. The Nekkei will be monitored in the run up to the next BoJ meeting in April.

Tomorrow

Japan – Tokyo Core CPI y/y later tonight.
US Final GDP y/y is important but I recommend you do NOT trade tomorrow or Monday as volumes will be thin and markets prone to swing between total inactivity and wild volatility.

Video

Your video is below (the detail on the trading plan starts at 5:10).
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