Daily Alert: For Thursday 10th March 2016

Mark Nugent2016 H1, Daily Alert, March 2016


Video Below
Fundamentals and Sentiment – New Information (Economic Calendar)

We are more risk-on today, with rising equity markets and bond yields.


Canadian rates were unchanged as expected. The BOC said financial markets volatility seems to be abating and they expect global growth to strengthen this year and next. Core inflation is at target of 2% caused by currency depreciation (making imports more expensive).

Fundamentals and Sentiment – Market Reaction

The Vix moves up but is still below 20. Stock markets are up in the US and Europe, down elsewhere. Western bond yields are up (price down, i.e. risk-on). Oil holds at near-term resistance. Other commodities fall. In the FX indices, the JPY weakens and the commodity currencies all strengthen.

Fundamentals and Sentiment – Financial Media

I refer to two stories in the video:

Bloomberg story on Draghi’s stimulus failing.

US sends tanks and helicopters to Europe to counter Putin.

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1. ECB Meeting

Two scenarios – a) Draghi delivers stimulus: Euro weakens and Euro50 and Dax30 stock markets rise and b) Draghi underdelivers: Euro rises and stock markets fall. I will wait to see what happens tomorrow and once the market has made up its mind on what Draghio has done I will act accordingly.

2. Oversold GBP

If Draghi delivers this is a short. It is a long if he disappoints.

3. AUD Watchlist

Next Tuesday 15th March sees the minutes from the last policy meeting of the Australian central bank. This should determine the continued strength or otherwise of the AUD over the next period.

4.  USDJPY long (from last week).

Almost knocked out today but now rising towards my entry price.


Bank of England MPC rate decision.

US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.

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