Daily Alert: For Thursday 17th December 2015

Mark Nugent2015 H2, Daily Alert

Today’s slides are HERE.

Today’s Economic News

Last night NZ Dairy posted a small price gain.

Today, the critical UK average earnings missed expectation by a small margin. All eyes await the Fed’s rate announcement at 1900 GMT.

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On the wider question of risk on/risk off (as of 1730 GMT): WTI (oil) is having a down day as the US announce they are close to  removing their 40 year old ban on exporting oil. All the stock markets are up, bar China (for the second day running). There is almost no movement in bond prices (so no run to safety). The JPY, EUR and USD indices are flat. GBP is slightly down but only slightly. So again no run to safety. The VIX gaps down overnight and is now at 20.95, but I suspect this is due to a pre-Fed lull. It’s as quiet as I can ever remember out there. So, on balance, I’d say we are neither risk on or risk off. There’s nothing happening. I suggest you close all USD trades before the announcement unless they are in profit but even then there may be some slippage if your stop is close to breakeven. Better safe than sorry.

Current Trades and Opportunities

GBPNZD – I am slightly down on the day so far. Half way to my 1000 pip stop. Uh. We’ll see if NZ GDP tonight at 2145 GMT will help me.

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GBPCAD – my pending short was triggered yesterday. Stop at 3 x ATR and risk at 2%. The CAD must strengthen on stronger oil. That’s the plan anyway.

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Now is not the time for any more trading.

Major Issues for tomorrow

UK Retail Sales at 0930 GMT. The market’s expecting a print of 0.6% where prior was -0.6%, so a miss to the downside could hurt.