Daily Alert: For Thursday 17th March 2016

Mark Nugent2016 H1, Daily Alert, March 2016


Video Below
Fundamentals and Sentiment – New Information (Economic Calendar)

We have been risk-on today.

Today’s major news is from the US. The Fed vote to keep rates unchanged at 0.25-0.50% with Fed’s Esther George the lone voice in favour of hiking rates by 25bps. The Fed have lowered their median forecast for interest rates in 2016 which implies two rate hikes this year (down from four forecasted in December). The concern is the potential impact from weaker global growth and financial market turmoil on the US economy.

Others news events today include UK average earnings beating expectations and the claimant count change also exceeding expectations. This is very good news for the UK economy. The UK budget did not move the market as it is purely a fiscal issue. US Core CPI beat expectations which is a bullish result.

Fundamentals and Sentiment – Market Reaction

The Vix moves in a tight region between the high 16s and the high 17s. In equities, Asia is down, China up and a mixed message in the West. Bond yields are mixed. Oil moves up after two days of decline. Other commodities are flat. The USD index climbs for a third day. JPY weakens and the commodity currencies are mixed.

In essence, it is a mixed and quiet day, prior to the Fed announcement at 6pm GMT.

Fundamentals and Sentiment – Financial Media

Nothing of note.

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1. S&P500

As expected with a pessimistic scenario from the Fed, the S&P rose on the news.


The Fed announcement knocked out my trade at breakeven.


This is unaffected by the Fed announcement. The pair remains within the consolidation zone.


The Fed announcement pushed this pair up, knocking out my trade at breakeven.

5. FTSE100

I am not seeing much reaction to the Fed’s announcement. This instrument is still trading within the consolidation zone. I will wait for a move and close below the zone for a short.


The main event is the UK’s Official Bank Rate, votes and Monetary Policy Summary.


Your video is below (the detail on the trading plan starts at 5:05).

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