Daily Alert: For Thursday 31st March 2016

Mark Nugent2016 H1, Daily Alert, March 2016


Video Below
Fundamentals and Sentiment – New Information (Economic Calendar)

Tuesday night – Fed Chair Yellen’s speech focused on inflation, in which she noted some concern surrounding low expectation readings and added the outlook has become more uncertain, whilst emphasising that it is too early to tell if the pickup in core inflation is durable. The Fed Chair also pointed out certain headwinds which have the potential to slow the recovery, including a slowdown abroad and a stronger USD. The implied lower rate hike profile had the expected impact: equities rallied, bond yields dropped and USD sank.

Wednesday – ADP Non-Farm Payroll in the US prints at 200K against expectation of 195K (previous 205K revised from 214K). German Preliminary CPI m/m was 0.8% vs expectation of 0.6% (previous 0.4%).

Fundamentals and Sentiment – Market Reaction

The Yellen-inspired USD decline continues into today, as does the S&P rally. Yesterday’s US 10 year bond yield decrease was reversed today. The Vix hit a new low for the year. Oil moves up slightly. Copper slips and the commodity basket goes sideways. Most equity markets are up.

Fundamentals and Sentiment – Financial Media


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1. GBP Weakness.
GBPNZD sinking nicely. At horizontal support. Look for signs of bounce up on H4 and if seen, exit.

2. JPY Weakness.
Need to see some USD strength.

3. EUR Weakness.
EURUSD setup nicely from a technical viewpoint for a short if USD strengthens.

4. Oil
USDCAD maybe showing a double bottom. Again, USD strength is key.

5. Commodity Weakness – there is no commodity weakness at the moment.

6. Equity Weakness – the S&P500 is at resistance. Now may be the time for weakening, although Yellen is not helping.


Bank of England’s Governor Carney speaks and Canadian GDP.


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