Daily Alert: For Thursday 3rd March 2016

Mark Nugent2016 H1, Daily Alert, March 2016


Video Below
Fundamentals and Sentiment – New Information (Economic Calendar)

Risk-on sentiment continues into today, Wednesday with most stock markets rising.


Australian GDP comes in at 0.6% vs forecast of 0.5%.

UK Construction PMI misses forecast of 55.5, printing at 54.2.

US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (preview of Friday’s NFP) beats expectation (214K vs 185K) and US Crude Oil Inventories balloon to 10.4m barrels vs an expectation of 2.5m.

Fundamentals and Sentiment – Market Reaction

The Vix drops slightly on the day to 17.65 at the time of writing, after yesterday’s huge fall in the US session. Oil stalls at the top of the consolidation zone. Most stock markets are up, with the Asians performing very well. The JPY index is flat. AUD rises sharply, CAD drops and NZD is flat.

Fundamentals and Sentiment – Financial Media

Nothing of note.

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  1. Euro Weakness

My EURUSD trade continues down and into further profit. The H4 chart is showing a break out of consolidation. I will place a second trade, 0.5% risk with stop close to 1 x Daily ATR.

EURAUD gave a nice flag set up today which, if traded, is in the money.

  1. GBP Weakness

The plunging GBPUSD has been pulling back now for 3 days and has exited the tight triangle on the H4 chart. I will go short at around 1.4000 with a stop around 1 x Daily ATR.

GBPAUD makes a double bottom. A short just below this, say 1.9250, is a sensible trade. Again, I’d keep the stop to no less than 1 x Daily ATR.

  1. JPY Weakness

USDJPY – I placed a pending trade at yesterday’s high and it was triggered this morning. Currently slightly underwater. Stop is around 200 pips at yesterday’s low. ATR is around 131 pips. 1% risk.

  1. NZD Weakness

AUDNZD was tradable on the H4 chart. I didn’t see it as I was not looking!


US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is the biggy to watch for.

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