Daily Alert: For Thursday 7th April

Mark Nugent 2016 H1, April 2016, Daily Alert

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Video Below
Fundamentals and Sentiment – New Information (Economic Calendar)

Numbers are quoted in the following format: (actual; expectation; prior.)

Wednesday – US Crude Oil Inventory shrinks rather than grows (-4.9m; 3.1m; 2.3m).

Fundamentals and Sentiment – Market Reaction

The market is still cautious. The Yen index shows JPY strength. However, the USD index has been up for most of the day and UK, German and US bonds all show rising yields (lower prices), reversing yesterday’s capital flow into bonds. Equities are mixed with all western bourses up on the day. Oil is up for the second day and commodity currencies are either up or flat on the day. In summary, the bond and equity position says we have moved more risk-on.

Fundamentals and Sentiment – Financial Media

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-05/-brexit-no-barrier-to-u-k-stock-valuations-at-record-premium
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-dollar-inflation-idUSKCN0X226S

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Trades

1. GBP Weakness

As suggested yesterday, GBPAUD was showing a good technical setup. I have entered at yesterday’s low, with a stop of 150 pips (approximately three quarters of the Daily ATR). 1% risk. The trade is currently around 75 pips in profit. Stop to breakeven.

2. EUR Weakness

The Euro was strong yesterday and flat today. No attractive setups.

3. Equities

My focus is on S&P500. Almost triggered today with an entry at yesterday’s low.

4. Watchlist

No setups.

5. USD Weakness

The USD has not been weak today.

Tomorrow

I should have realised I cannot report on the FOMC minutes as they are not out until 7pm BST tonight. I will report tomorrow. We also have three Central Bankers speaking: Koruda, Draghi and Yellen.

Video

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