Daily Alert: For Tuesday 8th December 2015

Mark Nugent2015 H2, Daily Alert

Monday’s are always slow in forex and there are rarely significant issues to discuss so Monday’s Daily Alert, if it appears at all, will usually be text based and brief.
The main themes discussed in the Weekly Outlook were:

Euro sentiment

The Euro index moves up slightly today saying sentiment is slightly bullish but it is finely drawn as the EURGBP rises and the EURUSD falls. It’s significant that there is an absence of strong bullish sentiment. I am beginning to think “sell” again, but will watch for a while longer.

NZ Rate Decision (sell NZD)

GBPNZD rises significantly taking my trade to breakeven. Barclays recommend shorting NZDUSD (or long on GBPNZD) as they feel a likely 25 basis point reduction on Wednesday is only 40% priced into the market.

Swiss Rate Decision (sell CHF)

Analysts at Credit Suisse recommend buying USDCHF (i.e. selling CHF) as they believe the Swiss National Bank will cut rates on Thursday by 25 basis points to -1.0%. (Be careful).

Caution

Be careful, especially with Euro shorts and selling CHF. Lower risk.

Oil

The failure of OPEC to cut oil production at their meeting over the weekend has depressed oil prices and hence CAD. The GBPCAD setup mentioned in the Weekly Outlook looks good now. If it closes outside the triangle tonight consider going long.