Daily Alert: For Wednesday 13th April 2016

Mark Nugent 2016 H1, April 2016, Daily Alert

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Video Below
Fundamentals and Sentiment – New Information (Economic Calendar)

Numbers are quoted in the following format: (actual; expectation; prior.)

Monday – Fed announcement – there was no announcement.

Tuesday – UK CPI y/y printed above expectations (0.5%; 0.3%; 0.3%). Although not a mandated target for the BoE, Core CPI y/y also exceeded expectation (1.5%; 1.3%; 1.2%).

Fundamentals and Sentiment – Market Reaction

Bond yeilds across the US, UK and Germany have risen as prices drop and capital flows out. All major stock markets are up on the week. So we are more risk-on. Oil and most commodities are up on the week. In the FX markets, the USD index is flat on the week (down yesterday and recovered today), the JPY weakens and gives back some of last week’s gains, all commodity currencies are up, the Euro is down and the GBP is up.

Fundamentals and Sentiment – Financial Media

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-12/imf-warns-of-global-stagnation-as-it-cuts-growth-outlook-again

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/12/soros-european-union-in-mortal-danger.html

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Trades

1. JPY Strength

The JPY hesitates on Monday and rises today. Looks like the window of opportunity to short USDJPY has passed. I will assess entry prices for going long.

2. GBP Weakness

No attractive setups.

3. OPEC Meeting

As expected, the ever-optimistic market assumes an oil deal will happen on Sunday at the OPEC meeting, so the oil price and the CAD strenghten. As last night’s daily candle closed below the triangle, I go short with a pending sell stop placed at 10pm last night (BST) with an entry at yesterday’s low. The stop I defined on the H4 chart of around 70 pips vs a Daily ATR of around 140 pips. Today I moved the stop to breakeven. 1% risk.

4. USD

Nothing to report.

Tomorrow

China Trade Balance, USD Core Retail Sales and Canadian Rate and Statement.

Video

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