Daily Alert: For Wednesday 20th January 2016

Mark Nugent 2016 H1, Daily Alert, January 2016

Here is today’s Daily Alert in video format. I think it allows me to get more info across with more nuance, but it may require you to take a note or two! Swings and roundabouts. I am keen to know what you think. Also, rather than have formal Q&A webinars, please send me your questions at any time at all and I will answer them either in the next Daily Alert or the Weekly Review and Outlook, whichever comes first.

[fwduvp preset_id=”8″ playlist_id=”11″]
Today’s Economic Calendar
China – GDP q/y and Industrial Production missed forecast by a whisker.
UK – CPI y/y UK – better than expected. GBP rises. Governor Carney – “now is not the time to raise interest rates”. He is focused on GDP growth (with Q4 2015 and Q1 2016 revised down), wage growth and  CPI. GBPUSD goes to lowest since March 2009.
Germany – Final CPI as per forecast but negative so that’s deflation.
New Zealand – Global Dairy Trade negative – that makes 5 of the last 7 negative.
Other Market Information
Vix gaps up on Friday close but moves down today.
Stock markets -S&P, Footsie, DAX30, CAC40, CSI300, Shanghai Composite, Nikkei and Hang Seng all up.
JPY index showing weakness (as we move out of safe haven and into risk-on).
Critical Trades for this week
1. USDCAD – trade as a bull flag.
2. USDJPY – reversal of safe haven flow. Enter above “buying zone”.
3. EURUSD – Euro weakness. Sell at top of channel or breakout down.
4. USDSGD – long on bounce from bottom line of triangle or on breakout up.
5. USDSEK – Riksbank MPC gives executive power to Goveror and Deputy only! SEK appreciation seen as a threat to upturn in inflation. They are ready to act! Go long on bounce off bottom of channel or a breakout up.
Tomorrow’s Calendar
UK Average Earnings
US Core CPI
Canadian Rate Statement