Daily Alert: For Wednesday 6th April

Mark Nugent2016 H1, April 2016, Daily Alert

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Video Below
Fundamentals and Sentiment – New Information (Economic Calendar)

Numbers are quoted in the following format: (actual; expectation; prior.)

Monday – Australian Retail Salers missed (0.0%; 0.4%; 0.3%). In the UK, Construction PMI was on track (54.2; 54.3; 54.2).

Tuesday – Overnight, continued Japanese gloominess as BoJ Governor Kuroda said it is technically possible to cut rates further into negative territory if required, but also added they are not placing particular focus on negative rates. BoJ is considering downgrading inflation outlook in its economic outlook report later this month amid lower expectations from households and businesses. In Australia, the Trade Balance was disappointing (-3.41B; -2.55B; -3.16B). Also in Australia, the RBA rate decision was as expected (2.00%; 2.00%; 2.00%) and the central bank did not make any dovish comments. UK Services PMI was on track (53.7; 53.9; 52.7). In the US, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI beat expectation (54.5; 54.1; 53.4). In NZ, Global Dairy came in at 2.1% growth which is positive for the NZ economy.

Fundamentals and Sentiment – Market Reaction

The USD index is flat at the time of writing. The main issue today is some risk-off sentiment causing flows into JPY. All equities markets are down except China and US, UK and German bond yields are down, all reflecting the risk-off sentiment. Oil is up and commodities down. Commodities currencies all take a hit as we move more risk-off.

Fundamentals and Sentiment – Financial Media

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-04/japan-stock-futures-fall-amid-yen-gains-as-crude-extends-selloff
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-04/-brexit-debate-is-no-1-euro-threat-for-top-currency-forecaster
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-04-04/time-is-running-out-again-for-greece
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-04/greece-s-path-to-new-imf-loan-grows-even-rockier-following-leak

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Trades

1. GBP Weakness

Consider shorting GBPUSD upon exit of triangle (down) and GBPAUD on bounce off resistance.

2. EUR Weakness

The Euro was not weak today due to safe haven flows.

3. Equities

I will short the S&P500 at 10pm BST tonight (with a pending order at today’s low) if the candle closes as a down candle.

4. Watchlist

Nothing to report.

5. USD Weakness

The USD was not consistently weak today.

Tomorrow

In the US, we have the important FCMO minutes.

Video

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