Daily Alert: For Wednesday 9th March 2016

Mark Nugent2016 H1, Daily Alert, March 2016

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Video Below
Fundamentals and Sentiment – New Information (Economic Calendar)

A quick look at the Vix, the equity markets and the Western bond markets indicate we have moved to a more risk-off position.

Monday

Japanese final GDP comes out a little better than last time at -0.4% q/q. But it’s still shrinkage.

Tuesday

Bank of England Governor Carney picking up some flak from MPs in the Treasury Committee today for allegedly showing pro-EU bias in recent statements.

Fundamentals and Sentiment – Market Reaction

The Vix moves up but still well below 20 at 17.35. Global equities are down apart from China. US, UK and German bond yields are all down (price up). WTI is down and at recent resistance. The commodity basket is up but Goldman Sachs says this rally will not last as fundamentally there is over-supply. The JPY strengthens and all the commodity currencies weaken. Definitely a move to risk-off.

Fundamentals and Sentiment – Financial Media

I refer to three stories in the video:

Goldman Sachs say commodities rally will frizzle out

Carney gets flak for “supporting” the Brexit “in” campaign

IMF urges action on global economy

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Trades
  1. ECB Meeting

Euro50 stock market continues to go sideways. My EURUSD short gets slightly eroded today as the pair moves up. It looks to me like all Euro instruments are waiting for Thursday’s ECB policy announcement.

  1. Oversold GBP

The EURGBP pair consolidates just below the support line. Again, the pair is waiting for Thursday.

  1. AUD Watchlist

The AUDUSD fails to make it to the 0.7545 trendline. With AUDNZD, we must wait now for the NZ rate announcement tomorrow.

Tomorrow

Canadian and New Zealand rate announcements.

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