Daily Alert – Friday 10th March 2023: All eyes on Non-Farm Payroll

Mark NugentDaily Alert, March 2023

Daily Alert – Friday 10th March 2023: All eyes on Non-Farm Payroll

Good morning.

Looking over Wednesday and Thursday, a few things happened.

Fed Chair Powell’s second day of testimony in front of Congress provoked no further moves in the market after Tuesday’s sell-off.

Eurozone Q4 GDP was 0.0%, as per expectation.

GDP in Japan (Q4) was also 0.0%, missing the expectation of 0.2%.

The Bank of Canada kept rates unchanged at 4.5%, indicating the probable peak. The CAD fell and is still falling.

Today, the Bank of Japan kept rates at -0.1%, as expected. However, it is dovish Governor Kuroda’s last meeting and the statement noted “Inflationary expectations are rising”. Maybe time to think about a rate hike in Japan for the first time in 750 years.

My GBPUSD short ran out of steam, which was always a likelihood as it was propelled not just by the weak GBP, but also by a strong USD. That situation was unlikely to last, and it didn’t. I got out at breakeven (which is the secret to my success, not winning trades).

We’re left with Non-farm Payroll this afternoon. If it comes in hot, as Wednesday’s ADP number suggests, then that’s more power to the Fed’s elbow and the final nail in the “pivot” idea’s coffin, if a final nail is needed.

I’ll be back on Monday. Have a great weekend.

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