Daily Alert – Friday 13th November 2020: Darling of the week – Pfizer

Mark NugentDaily Alert, Nov 2020

Daily Alert – Friday 13th November 2020: Darling of the week – Pfizer

Most of the fun this week took place on Monday with the Pfizer vaccine announcement. Equity prices leapt on the news before reversing to a degree in the final hours of the daily candle. Tuesday through Friday saw equity prices seesawing with the changing risk sentiment which stayed positive on Tuesday before sliding into indecision on the Wednesday, sinking into risk-off on Thursday and then back to indecisive on Friday. The Monday move has ensured that equities will close up on the weekly chart as we head into the Friday night close.

Oil followed much the same pattern as equities over the week, rising on Monday and Tues and then falling for the remainder of the week as Covid concerns resurfaced and the market digested the impact of increased supply from Iran under a less aggressive Biden administration. Oil will end the week slightly up but well within the tight range we have seen now for around 22 weeks.

GOLD dropped like a, er gold bar, on Monday as Pfizer cheered the markets. Pricing then stayed at support Tuesday through Thursday. I entered long last night as sentiment was negative and the USD was weak, and the daily was showing a nice move up from support. Three good reasons to get in. None to stay out. That’s all I needed. However, today’s USD strength and indecisive sentiment has hindered progress and as I write (1700 GMT) I am less than one times risk (1%) in the money. Stop is at breakeven so no chance of capital loss. That was my sole trade for the week and my reasons for avoiding other trades was outlined clearly on Wednesday.

The JPY is down on the week driven by a huge fall on Monday as sentiment brightened. The AUD and NZD are up on the week but have been very choppy on the daily charts. CAD is well down on the week, reacting very badly to the move down in oil.

The GBP is up on the week, driven by the Pfizer news and by the announcement today of the imminent departure of PM Johnson’s psycho shyster chief advisor, paving the way for less of an FU approach to Brexit negotiations with the EU, allegedly.

The USD rises as the EUR falls on the week, both with great choppiness on the daily charts.

Trade of the week was anything you like at 1130 on Monday morning (equities and oil long, GOLD and JPY short, for example), getting out on the Monday night. However, that is not how we trade as reacting to news intra-day requires frequent monitoring of charts throughout the day as these moves often reverse quickly. I prefer one look per day, at the end of the day. Other than that, there were some crumbs to be had in GOLD and oil long. I will close my GOLD long tonight and it will make between 0.5% and 1.0%. In 24 hours. That is good enough for me and this approach has provided my best year ever.

Have a great weekend and I’ll be back on Monday.

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