Daily Alert – Friday 27th October 2023: Fed’s chosen inflation measure disappoints

Mark NugentDaily Alert, October 2023

Daily Alert – Friday 27th October 2023: Fed’s chosen inflation measure disappoints

Good afternoon.

Today we saw the Fed’s chosen measure of inflation disappoint the markets. Core PCE for September came in at 0.3% which, although equal to the expectation, was higher than the August number of 0.1%. So, not going the right way.

The first major inflation measure in Japan, Tokyo Core CPI, came in at 2.7%, higher than the expectation and the prior month’s number, both of which were 2.5%. However, the Bank of Japan sails on regardless with a negative interest rate, quietly doing their own thing.

To continue the theme of disappointment, two of my trades, WTI long and EURUSD, both closed at around breakeven. The S&P500 short is doing better and should make around 1.6% to 1.8% later tonight when I exit.

The week has been characterised by very bad PMI data in the eurozone and the UK. Over in the US, we have seen better PMI data, a fantastic GDP number, but sticky inflation.

Have a great weekend. I will be back on Monday.

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