Daily Alert – Friday 6th October 2023: What a thing the US economy really is

Mark NugentDaily Alert, October 2023

Daily Alert – Friday 6th October 2023: What a thing the US economy really is

Good evening.

Today’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) in the US, showed the US economy had created 336,000 new jobs in the last month, versus an expectation of 170,000. The resilience of the US economy is truly remarkable. (NFP is, of course, a coarse measure of economic health, but has become “iconic”.) The downside of this is that it lowers any reticence the Fed may be harbouring in increasing interest rates at their next meeting. So, bond yields rise, and equities fall.

WTI is falling, undergoing what I think is probably a correction. The financial media is blaming it on all sorts of things, like petroleum consumption in the US. Petroleum consumption in the US does not trouble the economic calendar, and in three minutes on Google I could find nothing about it. I think it is simply a correction, which will be good for us “long bias” people.

The USD was flat this week, and my bias is strong. My bias on the EUR and GBP is weak, and they both rose. That explains why my EURUSD and GBPUSD short trades both lost money, giving back the prior week’s gain, and a wee bit more. Oh well.

That’s it from me. Have a great weekend. I will be back on Monday.

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