Daily Alert – Thursday 13th April 2023: CPI fails to thrill, Fed ploughs on

Mark NugentApril 2023, Daily Alert

Daily Alert – Thursday 13th April 2023: CPI fails to thrill, Fed ploughs on

Good morning.

Yesterday’s US CPI failed to significantly change the picture. If anything, equities, by falling, reflected the acceptance by traders of the likelihood that there is at least one more hike to come in May, and rates will stay elevated for a lengthy period. Just like the Fed have been saying forever.

In addition, the FOMC Minutes, released yesterday, lowered the expectation for the ultimate rate high, but alluded to the 25 basis-point hike in May, EVEN WITH the forecast of a “mild recession” later in 2023 (previously the Fed had been 50/50 on the chances of recession).

I placed two trades: EURUSD and WTI, both long.

I’ll be back tomorrow with a short video of last week’s losing EURUSD long trade.

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