Daily Alert – Thursday 13th June 2024: The dot plot tells it all

Mark NugentDaily Alert, June 2024

Daily Alert – Thursday 13th June 2024: The dot plot tells it all

Good afternoon.

The Fed was hawkish. The famous dot plot shows that the voting members think there will be only one 25-basis-point cut this year, down from their March view of three such cuts. In addition, the bank’s inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025 were raised. However, Fed Chair Powell said that the forecasts were conservative which allowed the markets to see room for future dovishness. Confirmation bias? Probably. Incorrect? Maybe not.

The markets did not really react. Most of the price action came from the downside misses on CPI which we had earlier in the day. The FedWatch tool barely moved after the Fed announcement.

Today we saw US PPI missing to the downside and Unemployment Claims coming in higher than expected.

My trades are not doing so well. My WTI long trade simply did not take off and I killed it at the close for a technical loss of 0.13%. My EURUSD long has just been kicked out at breakeven. Cannot win them all.

I will be back tomorrow, with a brief video of Trade 17, USDJPY long, breakeven.

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