Daily Alert: Thursday 1st September 2016

Mark NugentDaily Alert, Sept 2016

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Economic Calendar

In the US the ADP Non-Farm Payroll early warning came in on expectation at 177K. Canadian GDP m/m was 0.6% vs expectation of 0.4%. The US Deptartment of Energy reported crude oil inventories rising to 2.3m barrels vs a forecast of 1.1 m barrels.

This morning, Chinese Manufacturing PMI crept above 50 to 50.4 vs an expectation of 49.9. Australian Retail Sales were flat at 0.0% vs a forecast of 0.3%.

Market Reaction

The oil price dropped on the inventory news. The Japanese equities index rose on easing expectation which is always good for the corporate sector. The Euro50 returns to the 200 MA line. UK and US equities continue to go sideways at highs.

Media

Brexit negotiations begin in earnest with UK PM Teresa May saying controls on immigration are a red line even if this means leaving the single market. If, as expected, the EU negotiate hard and the UK ends up with a harsh deal, Goldman Sachs forecast the GBPUSD falling to 1.2.

Forex Indexes

The USD is developing a short term trend up as the JPY does the same downwards. The GBP bounces off post-Brexit lows.

Today

In the UK and US we have Manufacturing PMI, an important number and seen as being a leading indicator of GDP.

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