Daily Alert: Thursday 22nd June 2017

Mark NugentDaily Alert, June 2017

Forex Analysis for Thursday 22nd June 2017

Economic Calendar


The GBP hypothesis among short term traders has been flipped on its head again as the comments from the BoE’s Haldane give the hawkish bias a fresh lease of life. The MPC member voted for no change at the meeting last week, so traders look to the vote split to neutralise over the months ahead, given his positive outlook on growth and higher inflation expectations. As ever, data dependency should limit the upside as well as the not-so small matter of the Brexit negotiations ahead, with only the CBI industrial trends orders down on the schedule this week.

UK PM May is facing a constitutional crisis after Labour and the Liberal Democrats threatened to use the House of Lords to water down Brexit. (Telegraph/Times)

New Zealand Interest Rate Decision: Unchanged at 1.75% vs. Exp. 1.75% (Prev. 1.75%)

– Policy to remain accommodative for some time.
– Uncertainties remain and policies may need to adjust accordingly.
– Changes announced in the 2017 budget should support growth.
– Outlook for domestic economic growth remains positive.

Fed’s Harker (Voter, Neutral) seeks ‘pause’ on rate hikes while forging ahead on balance sheet reduction and commented that balance sheet unwind could start in September. (Newswires)

Market Reaction

The tone stays risk off with equities down, apart from the Nasdaq which stages a rally. Oil continues down to below $43/bbl. Gold rises on safe-haven flows as does the JPY. The GBP has a roller-coaster day, with Haldane giving support and then the Conservative’s difficulties having a depressive effect. CAD drops on oil and AUD drops on general risk-off tone. NZD is down but rises today on the positive RBNZ statement.

News Media

Nothing of note.

Today’s Calendar

CAD Retail Sales.

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