Forex Analysis for Thursday 6th October 2016
Wednesday saw Australian Retail Sales exceed expectations (0.4% vs 0.2%). In the UK, the third PMI, and the most important, Services PMI, exceeded expectations (52.6 vs 52.1). In the US, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI was positive (57.1 vs 53.1). There was an unexpected draw-down in crude oil inventories in the US (-3.0M barrels vs 1.1M barrels).
WTI gets close to USD50/barrel. US equities stay at all-time highs with UK equities not far behind. Euro50 rises above the 200MA. Deutsche Bank and Commerz Bank continue to rise from lows. The USD continues to rise and the JPY fall. The GBP pauses at support. The CAD remains buoyed by the rising oil price.
Will BoE’s Carney stay or go? Will a past Danish bail-in of a failing bank act as a model for Deutsche Bank? Deutsche Bank’s potential fine of USD14B the result of a change of personnel in the US Justice Department.
Today is quiet. Australian Trade Balance has already reported (-2.01B vs -2.32B). The highlight is ECB Monetary Policy Minutes. Later we have US Unemployment Claims.
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