Daily Alert: Thursday 8th September 2016

Mark Nugent Daily Alert, Sept 2016

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Forex Analysis for Thursday 8th September 2016
Economic Calendar

UK Manufacturing Production missed expectation (-0.9% v -0.4%). At the Inflation Report Hearings, BoE Governor Dr Mark Carney said there was more room for interest rate reductions if needed.

Bank of Canada kept interest rates unchanged at 0.50%. The statement commented that they see inflation risk skewed to the downside, whilst reiterating expectations of the GDP rate rebounding in Q3 as the impact of the Alberta wildfires works through.

The National Iranian Oil Company stated that Iran may be able to exceed pre-sanction levels of output next year and added that it is too early to discuss a production freeze at the Algiers meeting.

Market Reaction

All equity markets essentially flat. Oil rises above the 50MA.

Forex Indexes

USD down on week after poor ISM data. GBP bounced off resistance as predicted. AUD begins to trend upwards again as the carry trade buys this high-yielding currency.

Media

Greek bonds under-performing – worst in Euro Area. Greek government failing to implement reforms agreed as part of bailout. ECB excluding Greek bonds from QE.

Biggest oil traders see a continuation of current low oil prices for 1 to 2 years before demand outstrips supply.

Today

Today we have the ECB Minimum Bid Rate and Mario Draghi’s press conference. He has been quiet for a long time. This might be interesting.

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