Forex Analysis for Tuesday 10th January 2017
Monday was quiet with no Tier I data.
Fed’s Rosengren (Soft Hawk, Non-Voter) says that a positive surprise could see inflation overshoot and urges the Fed to begin a balance sheet debate. (Newswires) This is a reference to QE, specifically the unwinding of QE by no longer re-investing in the market when bonds previously bought come to maturity and/or by simply selling currently held bonds. This could have a major depressive effect on US equities and would strengthen the USD.
Early Tuesday saw AUD Retail Sales m/m miss (0.2% vs 0.4%).
The USD consolidates just above the 50MA. The S&P500 and the Dow30 consolidate and the Nasdaq hits new all-time highs. UK equities are buoyant; the Euro50 and the Japan225 both consolidate. Oil consolidates between USD52 and USD55/bbl. The GBP drops after PM Teresa May says over the weekend that exiting the EU Single Market is likely in order to control the UK borders. The JPY consolidates.
No Tier I data.
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