Daily Alert – Tuesday 11th June 2024: US CPI changes the mood

Mark NugentDaily Alert, June 2024

Daily Alert – Tuesday 11th June 2024: US CPI changes the mood

Good afternoon.

Markets have been moved by soft inflation numbers in the US. Both core and headline CPI, and on a m/m and y/y basis, so that’s four measures, all missed to the downside, causing the USD to fall and equities to rise. The FedWatch tool shows a significant change in market expectation, with the first cut now expected at the 18th September meeting.

All eyes will now be on the Fed meeting tonight at 7pm BST where we will get the interest rate decision, the latest forecasts for inflation, a press conference and the famed DOT PLOT, the most exciting chart in all of economics.

I placed two trades, each of which was alluded to in Monday’s video. WTI long was doing quite nicely but now seems to be underwater. Could this be the first losing trade of the year? Many hope so. The other was EURUSD long, based on a reversal of the weak EUR. It is doing very nicely.

I will be back tomorrow, when I shall chew the Fed cud.

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