Daily Alert: Tuesday 13th September 2016

Mark NugentDaily Alert, Sept 2016

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Forex Analysis for Tuesday 13th September 2016
Economic Calendar

A quiet day yesterday with the highlight being FOMC’s Brainard (Voter, Dove) stating that the FOMC must not remove monetary stimulus too soon and that the case for hiking early is ‘less compelling’. (Newswires). Fed watcher Hilsenrath stated that a divided consensus among officials suggests FOMC will be tempted to avoid a September hike and that low inflation suggests a lack of urgency for rate hikes (Newswires). Goldman Sachs lowered its odds for a Fed hike next week to 25% from 40%. (Newswires). Fed’s Kashkari says economic recovery has been slow and frustrating. Atlanta Fed’s Lockhart is still keeping a September move as a possibility, despite the markets indicating December is more likely.

It seems unlikely there will be a hike at next Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. CME Group is forecasting a hike in December.

Market Reaction

All equity markets gapped lower at yesterday’s open, with all western indices closing above Friday’s close and in the US almost recovering all of Friday’s loss. Oil sits just above the 50MA. All commodity currencies are showing weakness and the GBP and JPY strengthening.

Media

Bloomberg – Brexit fails to boost support for Scots Independence.

Today

This morning we have the first important UK news: CPI y/y. German ZEW Economic Sentiment is presented at 10:00 BST.

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