Daily Alert – Tuesday 7th March 2023: Analysts say rate hiking is over

Mark NugentDaily Alert, March 2023

Daily Alert – Tuesday 7th March 2023: Analysts say rate hiking is over

Good afternoon.

Today’s Daily Alert is text-based. To read the full version, including my commentary for VIP Club member, please look under the “2023/Week 11” tab after logging in HERE

Yesterday was moderately risk-off as the fallout from the Silicon Valley Bank collapse continued. Nomura securities went as far as to say the Fed will CUT interest rates at next week’s meeting. Most others feel a 25 basis-point hike, or no change, will be the decision. Prior to the SVB situation, there was wide agreement that the Fed would hike by 50 basis points.

Today seems a bit rosier. Equities are rising. Many institutions are saying that the time of interest hikes is over due to the SVB crisis. That’s probably an over-statement but hiking prospects do seem diminished.

One fly in the ointment is that US Core CPI for February came in at 0.5% against an expected 0.4% and 0.3% for January. That’s going the wrong way and we know the Fed take their mandate seriously.

I’ll be back tomorrow.

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