Daily Alert: Wednesday 16th November 2016

Mark NugentDaily Alert, Nov 2016


Forex Analysis for Wednesday 16th November 2016
Economic Calendar

Tuesday saw a surprise miss in UK CPI y/y (0.9% vs 1.1%). US Core and Headline Retail Sales both exceeded expectations. New Zealand Global Dairy was positive at 4.5%.

A UK Supreme Court Judge has stated that Brexit could be delayed by up to 2 years amid suggestions it would take ‘comprehensive’ legislation to trigger Article 50 (ZeroHedge).
OPEC Secretary General Barkindo said OPEC countries are all hands-on deck to achieve November 30th target and that OPEC and non-OPEC members are conducting extensive consultations (ZeroHedge).

Market Reaction

The S&P500 and the Dow30 stay near highs and the Nasdaq struggles. Both UK indices move sideways between the 200MA and 50MA. The Euro50 stays above the 200MA where it was propelled by Trump. The Japan225 hits a 9 month high. WTI makes a strong move up through the 200MA and hits the 100MA before closing just below that level. On the currency markets, the USD is essentially flat and the JPY continues to weaken. The EUR strengthens and then gives it all back, closing just below the open. The GBP consolidates with both Monday and Tuesday’s candle bodies being within Friday’s open and close. Of the commodity currencies, only CAD really moves, and that’s up to the midpoint of the current channel. Both Emerging Markets currencies and equities bounce a little form their Trump-inspired declines. The FedWatch tool has a 90.6% chance of a rate hike at the 14th December meeting.


Populism takes over the world
Carney grows tired of central bank blame game
Trump over-reaction and oil sentiment


We have UK inflation early warning indicator Average Earnings Index 3m/y and New Zealand Retail Sales, postponewd from Tuesday due to earthquake.

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