Daily Alert: Wednesday 19th June 2019
Yesterday ECB head Draghi says if outlook doesn’t improve and inflation doesn’t strengthen, “additional stimulus will be required” adding that the ECB can amend its forward guidance, that rate cuts remain “part of our tools” and asset purchases (more QE!) are also an option.
Trump saying he will have “extended meeting” with Xi next week in Osaka at the G20.
Equities around the world rose on the prospect of more QE and positive US/China news. The EUR fell on the prospect of QE and also on the prospect of rate cuts.
GOLD continues to test the resistance zone which so far has held.
WTI is operating in a tight channel.
I lose both my “weak AUD” trades – AUDUSD short and EURAUD long. Fortunately no capital was at risk in either case.
7pm tonight – Fed Funds dot plot shows median rate at end 2019 unchanged from today’s rate (2.25%-2.50%). Despite this, the detail shows 1 member expecting 1 cut and 7 expecting 2 cuts. The market is reacting to that detail and the USD is falling. You can see the dot plot and the March dot plot in the PowerPoint download.
The updated Trading Plan is HERE.
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