Daily Alert: Wednesday 30th November 2016

Mark NugentDaily Alert, Nov 2016

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Forex Analysis for Wednesday 30th November 2016
Economic Calendar

US Preliminary GDP q/q came in above expectations (3.2% vs 3.0%).

The RBNZ Financial Stability Report was released and Governor Wheeler stated the RBNZ expects CPI in December to return into target range at just above 1%. This must reduce the chances of further rate reductions. The NZD strengthened.

ECB’s Coeure stated QE tapering talk is premature and added Greece could keep a primary surplus of 3.5% of GDP for several years after 2018 (ZeroHedge). It seems likely that the ECB will opt to continue QE beyond March 2017. (Previously they have stated the programme will last until “March 2017 or longer”.) This may be announced at the next meeting, 8th December. This may well cause a rally in stocks.

Market Reaction

I can convince myself the USD index has been trending down since last Thursday (H4 chart is clearer). Whereas the JPY index looks to be consolidating over the same period. US equities are consolidating as are both UK indices, the Euro50 and the Japan 225. I think it is fair to say the Trump bounce is consolidating. WTI drops to the 50MA on pre-OPEC meeting mixed messages.

Media

Euro area confidence rises as ECB reviews asset purchase programme

OPEC, RBS failing stress test and the forthcoming Italian referendum all feature.

Today

OPEC Meeting; Canadian GDP and UK Bank Stress Test Results.

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