Daily Alert – Wednesday 4th November 2020: Biden likely winner; congress to remain divided

Mark NugentDaily Alert, Nov 2020

Daily Alert – Wednesday 4th November 2020: Biden likely winner; congress to remain divided

The result of the US Presidential election is not known at the time of writing but a quick analysis shows that of the four undeclared swing states, Trump needs them all to remain president. He was ahead early this morning UK-time in all four but as the day drags on and the postal votes are counted, he now lags in two of the four. It seems likely at this point that Biden will win the presidency. There are other undeclared states but the result in each is either immaterial or not in doubt.

It also looks likely that the Senate will remain Republican and the House will remain Democrat, so it will be no easier for Biden to get his way than it was for Trump, which is bad news for the covid stimulus package.

Markets seem reasonably risk-on although there was tremendous volatility overnight.

I placed two trades on Monday and both closed in the early hours this morning: AUDJPY long yielded 4.13% and S&P500 long yielded 2.23%.

Tomorrow sees a major risk event – the Bank of England’s Super Thursday, which may well see new stimulus if tonight’s vote on the lockdown due to commence tomorrow is passed, which is highly likely.

I’ll be back on Friday with brief videos of this week’s trades and a review of the week.

You can watch the video in the VIP Club members area HERE