Trading Plan – Mon 18 Nov: Sentiment being talked up by the US; GBP rises on Tory poll lead

Mark Nugent Nov 2019, Trading Plan

Trading Plan – Mon 18 Nov: Sentiment being talked up by the US; GBP rises on Tory poll lead

Last Week

A roller-coaster week last week in terms of risk-sentiment. Starting the week either indecisive or risk-off, things went south after US/China trade concerns surfaced in a WSJ article on Wednesday, resulting in a significantly risk-off Thursday. Then US Economic Adviser Kudlow talked it all up by saying they were “getting close to a deal”. It seems the markets are still susceptible to this kind of talk.

US equities indices had a great Thursday and finished the week at new all-time highs. Other equity indices did little.

Elsewhere, Germany narrowly avoided going into recession by posting q/q GDP of +0.1% vs the expected -0.1%.

In the UK we saw almost total red with misses in CPI, Earnings and Retail Sales, yet the GBP was up on the week.

The NZD was boosted by the RBNZ failing to make a rate cut and then saying that a cut at the next meeting would require a change to their outlook on the economy. The other commodity currencies were exposed to the general risk-off sentiment in the first three days of the week and declined overall.

The USD was down on the week, largely driven by the positive risk tone on Friday.

This Week

The talking-up of sentiment continues over the weekend. The GBP rises as the Tory poll lead over Labour grows to 14%.

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