Trading Plan – Mon 2 Dec: China data boosts sentiment before a busy week

Mark NugentDec 2019, Trading Plan

Trading Plan – Mon 2 Dec: China data boosts sentiment before a busy week

Last Week

A short week, due to US Thanksgiving, risk-sentiment was mostly indecisive.

Major issues on the calendar were:

Inflation related – US Core PCE and German Preliminary CPI missing expectations,
A huge miss on Retail Sales in Japan,
Institutional forecasts of further rate cuts and even the introduction of QE in Australia and;
On Friday, Russia’s oil minister Novak inspiring a 4% price drop in WTI as he says he’s not keen on extending the production cut at next week’s OPEC+ meeting.

In holiday-thinned trade, US equities closed slightly up over the week. The biggest mover outside the US was the FTSE250 which moved up on the improving poll position for the Conservatives, although it was knocked back a little on Friday as the gap narrowed.

GOLD hardly moved and WTI dropped as mentioned above.

On currencies, the EUR and AUD both dropped, as predicted in Monday’s Trading Plan, but by very little, making trading difficult. The GBP rose on polling what was positive for the Conservatives. Elsewhere, moves were muted. Notably, the CAD arrested it’s recent decline.

This Week

This week gets off to a good start with positive sentiment due to Chinese data over the weekend and this morning. It’s a busy week with many items on the economic calendar and a NATO summit in London tomorrow and Wednesday. The UK election is ten days away and I will be looking closely for opportunities to position myself before the vote itself. It’s also a big week for the AUD on the calendar with five events which may well exacerbate the downward forces currently driving this commodity currency.

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