Trading Plan – Mon 6th Jan: US-Iran tensions; easy money from the S&P500

Mark NugentJan 2020, Trading Plan

Trading Plan – Mon 6th Jan: US-Iran tensions; easy money from the S&P500

Happy New Year!

The big issue facing the markets is the situation between the US and Iran. The Iranians have vowed to retaliate against the US. This won’t happen until before Soleimani’s funeral on Tuesday. Trump has resolved to respond to any retaliation with further attacks. Needless to say, we could see significant sentiment-driven volatility for some time and we need to be careful.

I go into detail on what is now being seen as the fourth stage of QE in the US. The correlation between QE and stock market growth is now quite clear. It has been shown that a 1% increase in the Fed’s balance sheet through QE equates to a 1% rise in the S&P500. As the Fed are planning on continuing QE4 into at least April 2020, this may offer a low risk/high reward trading opportunity by going long on the S&P500. This could well be a major theme for us in the first half of this year.

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