Trading Plan – Monday 14th February 2022: Solidly risk-off start to the week

Mark NugentFeb 2022, Trading Plan

Trading Plan – Monday 14th February 2022: Solidly risk-off start to the week

Good morning.

Last week was notable for two events.

Firstly, in the US we had inflation numbers that exceeded what was a high expectation. This, of course, fuels speculation on interest rate hikes. In fact, the markets are now pricing in a 50-basis point hike at the March meeting, up from an expected 25-basis points.

Secondly, Christine Lagarde, the President of the European Central Bank, tried to talk back the perception of hawkishness that had been created at the 3rd February ECB meeting when previous guidance saying there would be no hikes in 2022 was dropped. She said on Thursday that a rush to hike could damage the economy and that the Euro Zone economy was not over-heating like in the US. Then, over the weekend, we had no less than three flunkies from the ECB reiterating that view. Who knew clear communication was so difficult? Maybe they’ve been getting advice from Bank of England Governor Bailey who struggles to clearly tell the market what day of the week it is. Ho hum.

I closed one trade last week, Japan225 long, for a gain of 1.6 percent. There is a brief video of this trade in the members area.

This week starts quite solidly risk-off. We have lots of inflation and GDP data to come. Speculation on a Russian invasion of Ukraine is reaching fever pitch, oil is at a 7-year high, equities are tanking, inflation is surging, and Chicken Licken insists the sky is falling down.

As always, in the video I go through my trading themes for the week.

I’ll be back tomorrow with Steve.

VIP Club members can see today’s video, all brief trading videos, the Monthly and YTD Performance videos, the Trading Video Course and download the MTM Indicators software HERE