Trading Plan – Monday 11th September 2023: US inflation and ECB rate decision are the key events

Mark NugentSept 2023, Trading Plan

Trading Plan – Monday 11th September 2023: US inflation and ECB rate decision are the key events

Good afternoon.

This week is all about two key events.

Firstly, we have US inflation on Wednesday. The US inflation data will shape the Fed’s thinking prior to the next rate announcement on 20th Sept. The markets are 93% sure the Fed will pause. The USD is on a (messy) upwards trajectory, and I would like to see that continue so any inflation miss to the upside will help.

Secondly, we have the European Central Bank (ECB) rate and Statement on Thursday. Again, the markets think the bank will hold. The statement and press conference will help us to understand what the bank is thinking about persistent high inflation, today’s downwards revision to the growth forecast, the shrinking of the German economy and the risk of the dreaded stagflation.

I have changed my bias on three of the major currencies and updated the “finding trades” spreadsheet accordingly. You can download this from the member’s area.

As always, I go through my trading themes in the video.

Finally, here is this week’s schedule, designed to provide you with a video as soon as possible after key events:

Monday: Trading Plan [Video], published by 6pm.
Wednesday: Daily Alert [Video]: published by 6pm, after US CPI.
Thursday: Daily Alert [Video]: published by 6pm, after ECB Rate and Statement.

I’ll be back on Wednesday.

VIP Club members can see today’s video, all brief trading videos, the Monthly and YTD Performance videos, the Trading Video Course and download the MTM Indicators software HERE