Trading Plan – Monday 15th January 2024: MLK, WEF and CPI
It’s a quiet start to the week with the US being on holiday for Martin Luther King Jr Day.
We have seen comments from European Central Bank (ECB) personnel saying that rate cuts are not guaranteed this year. The markets are forecasting six 25-basis-point cuts in 2024. Now, the ECB are never going to speculate about cuts openly as this would change behaviour and make their inflation-taming job harder. However, it does seem like there is a real gap between market expectations and the likely path of the bank.
Another reason to expect a quiet week is that everyone of any note, except me, is in Davos for the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) annual bunfight.
The relative highlight of the week for me is UK inflation (CPI) on Wednesday where the expectation is for a modest fall from the prior month’s data, but still some way off the Bank of England’s 2% mandate.
As always, I go through my trading themes for the week in the video.
I’ll be back tomorrow.
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