Trading Plan – Monday 22nd January 2024: Central bank activity to the fore

Mark NugentJanuary 2024, Trading Plan

Trading Plan – Monday 22nd January 2024: Central bank activity to the fore

Good afternoon.

Last week ended on a high with positive sentiment propelling US equities to all-time highs. The Japan225 also advanced yet further, making its own all-time high.

This week we have the first central bank activity of the year.

First up we have the Bank of Japan on Tuesday. New governor Ueda has hinted at making the first rate hike since 2007. He then failed to allude to hiking at all at the last meeting. However, the markets are expecting a hike sometime in the first half of this year. Let’s see if he mentions it.

Second, we have the Bank of Canada on Wednesday. The market expectation is for the bank to hold at 5.0% for the fourth consecutive meeting.

Third, the European Central Bank will do their thing on Thursday. The bank was late to the party with hiking. President Lagarde said there was no point in hiking rates as the time that would take to work, around 18 months, would be longer than the pesky inflation would be around for. Wrong and wronger. The bank will not want to be late to the cutting party, especially with the fragile state of the Eurozone economy and German manufacturing in the toilet. There is no expectation of a cut at this meeting, but it will be interesting to see what the statement says and if Lagarde will spill some of the beans at the press conference.

Please note we have a truncated week this week. There is today’s video, a second tomorrow and then, on Wednesday, a brief video of last week’s profitable Japan225 trade.

I’ll be back tomorrow.

VIP Club members can see today’s video, all brief trading videos, the Monthly and YTD Performance videos, the Trading Video Course and download the MTM Indicators software HERE