Trading Plan – Monday 29th April 2024: Markets see only one Fed rate cut

Mark NugentApril 2024, Trading Plan

Trading Plan – Monday 29th April 2024: Markets see only one Fed rate cut

Good afternoon.

An interesting week has begun. 

Tuesday sees eurozone inflation and GDP. It is looking increasingly likely that the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will cut rates before the Fed. The mighty FedWatch tool is now predicting only one 25-basis-point cut this year from the Fed at the September meeting. 

On Wednesday we have the Fed’s rate-setting meeting. No change is expected. As always, the important bit will be the press conference where every one of Fed Chair Jerome’s words will be pored over. 

Friday sees US Average Hourly Earnings, a forward-looking indicator for inflation, and the not-really-as-important-as-it-thinks-it-is Non-Farm Payrolls, a measure of how many new jobs Starbucks has created in the last month. (Not just Starbucks). 

Looking at the charts, there are two main movers. Firstly, oil is coming down as hopes rise of some form of cease-fire in Gaza. Secondly, USDJPY is bouncing around like a Japanese salary man at midnight on a Friday as there are credible reports that the Bank of Japan HAS intervened to bolster the Yen in today’s holiday-thinned market. 

As always, I go through my trading themes for the week in the video. 

I will be back on Wednesday.

VIP Club members can see today’s video, all brief trading videos, the Monthly and YTD Performance videos, the Trading Video Course and download the MTM Indicators software HERE