Trading Plan – Monday 2nd October 2023: US government shutdown averted
It’s a relatively quiet week on the economic calendar. The highlights are all in the US. We will see Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI, ADP Employment Change, Non-Farm Payroll, and finally Average Hourly Earnings, the latter being an early-warning signal for inflation.
Bonds are tanking and yields rising as the deal made on Friday night to avert the US Government shutdown was finalised and the markets begin to focus on what is a firming view that the Fed will hike again at the next meeting. Today, the Fed-watch tool still sees no-change as the more likely outcome at that meeting, but the chances of a hike are increasing, and the meeting is not until 1st November.
As always, I go through my trading themes for the week in the video.
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