Trading Plan – Monday 4th March 2024: ECB and NFP in focus

Mark NugentMarch 2024, Trading Plan

Trading Plan – Monday 4th March 2024: ECB and NFP in focus

Good afternoon.

We have an interesting week ahead of us.

In the US, the highlight is Average Hourly Earnings and Non-Farm Payroll. The former is an early warning, or forward-looking, indicator of inflation. The latter is a constant reminder, usually, of the amazing resilience of the US economy and can move the market.

In the eurozone we have Rate and Statement from the European Central Bank. No move is expected. The bank is being hawkish, as is the Fed, by repeating their mantra-du-jour that it is better to cut rates too late than too early.

In the UK on Wednesday, we have the budget. Will the government try to bride the electorate with inflationary tax cuts we cannot afford? The Chancellor has been walking that back recently, as they say. They will certainly give something away, that’s for sure.

We will see the Bank of Canada Rate and Statement on Wednesday. The bank is expected to hold the rate at its current level. Again, no move is expected, and all eyes will be on the statement and the press conference.

I’ll be back on Monday.

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