Trading Plan – Monday 6th April 2020: Markets positive on latest Covid-19 figures – probably premature

Mark Nugent April 2020, Trading Plan

Trading Plan – Monday 6th April 2020: Markets positive on latest Covid-19 figures – probably premature

Last Week

Events and Calendar
Covid-19 dominates, again.
Weekly unemployment claims in the US jump by 6.6m.
Saudi refused emergency OPEC meeting to discuss prices; Trump seems to suggest Saudi and Russia are at least talking.

Risk Sentiment
Tilted to risk-off.

Asset Classes
Equities were largely static on the week.
WTI rose from 18-year low.
GOLD was volatile but ended the week just slightly down.
US10Y yield drops.
JPY rose and commodity currencies fell – as per normal for risk-off times. The USD rose (safe haven) and the EUR sank (not clear why). The GBP moved sideways.

This Week

Things get off to a positive start based on lower Covid-19 infection rates in Italy and Spain and parts of the US. However, US experts are predicting the next two weeks to be very bad in terms of fatalities. Positive risk sentiment may well be premature.

OPEC+ have delayed their meeting from today to Thursday and there’s a lot of noise saying a production cut will be agreed. However, the major issue facing oil is not over-supply, it is collapsing demand and I think that a supply cut may mitigate the problem, but that is all.

As Bill Gates said in an article I review in the video, the health and economic impact of Covid-19 will not be over until we have a vaccine.

Have a great week.

VIP Club members can watch the video HERE