Trading Plan – Tuesday 2nd April 2024: Markets more hawkish than Fed

Mark NugentApril 2024, Trading Plan

Trading Plan – Tuesday 2nd April 2024: Markets more hawkish than Fed

Good afternoon.

Sentiment was a wee bit risk-off yesterday and this continues today. The markets are talking themselves into being more hawkish than the Fed after positive economic signs from the US economy. It’s been a long time since I have written that. The latest report was yesterday’s Manufacturing PMI, which beat expectations to the upside. This is causing equities to go down and the USD and 10-year yield to rise. It seems to me to be a bit of an over-reaction to a limited amount of data, but remember, the market is never wrong, although the workings of behavioural economics may be hard to predict. That’s what makes it fun!

Bitcoin is down by around 10% from the recent all-time high. This is technically a “market correction”. ETF demand seems to be waning, but again, this is based on scant evidence.

Today, German inflation data seems to show that the battle is being won. We will get eurozone-level data tomorrow.

Friday will bring US Hourly Earnings and Non-Farm Payroll into view which may, or may not, fuel the market’s new-found hawkishness.

As always, I go through my trading themes for the week in the video.

I’ll be back tomorrow.

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