Weekly Review and Outlook 13th November 2017

Mark NugentNov 2017, Trading Plan

Weekly Trading Review – Week Commencing 6th November 2017

Highlights of the Week

Trump moved around Asia, bashing everyone on their trade surpluses with the USA.

Tuesday saw the first suggestion of a delay to US corporation tax cuts, which built momentum over the week and led to a consolidation of risk-off tone. Also on Tuesday, OPEC released their bumper World Oil Outlook which was positive as expected. The market bought the rumour , i.e. WTI prices rose during the run up to the publishing of the report. Thereafter, prices stagnated.

The UK government lost a minister on Wednesday with the resignation of Development Secretary Priti Patel.

Brexit talks resumed on Thursday with Barnier giving the UK a 2 week deadline to specify their intentions on the divorce bill.

The week closed with the US on holiday and in the UK Manufacturing Production was positive.

Risk sentiment started “on” and ended the week solidly “off”.

Themes for the week were:

1. Equity pullbacks in general – started to happen towards weekend.
2. EUR weakness overdone? – EUR flat on the week but Tuesday through Friday saw a rise.
3. Reversal of Carney-inspired moves? (FTSE short; GBP long) – we got an almost 62% retracement on the GBP drop and a complete reversal of the FTSE100 rise.
4. Oil volatility in run up to 30 Nov OPEC mtg – we did see a rise into the World Oil Outlook publication.
5. Keep an eye on GOLD – a slight pullback was seen to Thursday night, insufficient to trade short.

Performance

I entered a WTI long on Monday in the run up to the publication of OPEC’s World Oil Outlook. The price rose and then stagnated post-publication. I exited just before close on Friday for a small gain of 0.37% against risk of 0.51%.

Month-to-date I am +0.37%. Year-to-date I am +25.4%.

Weekly Trading Outlook – Week Commencing 13th November 2017

Major Events

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