Weekly Review and Outlook 14th August 2017

Mark NugentAug 2017, Trading Plan

Weekly Forex Review – Week Commencing 7th August 2017

Economic Calendar

Over the weekend:

Monday

Nothing.

Tuesday

Chinese Trade Balance disappointed. Although the number itself was positive, the underlying factors showed both exports and imports missing by some considerable margin.

Nothing on the calendar but a lot on the geopolitical front:

War of words between Trump and North Korea moves the markets towards risk-off.

South African President Zuma survives a secret ballot no-confidence vote.

US API Crude Oil Inventory Report for Aug 4 saw a week-on-week change of -7839K (previous +1779K).

Wednesday

As expected, the RBNZ kept the interest rate at 1.75%. Statement tone was dovish to neutral, maintaining the view that they would hike in Q3 2019. However, they also stated that they are always open to FX intervention as, in the words of Assistant Governor McDermott, they are uneasy and the NZD does need to adjust down.

N Korea said they will have a plan to strike Guam ready by mid-August and then present it to leader Kim.

Thursday

Trump/North Korea tensions continue with an ongoing war of words.

Friday

RBA Governor Lowe stated the board is prepared to be patient regarding monetary policy and that a weaker AUD would help reach full employment quicker and support inflation. Lowe also commented that the RBA are prepared to intervene in AUD, although it would have to be in an extreme situation. (Newswires)

USD Core CPI misses (0.1% vs 0.2%) as does Headline CPI (0.1% vs 0.2%).

Market Reaction

The markets were quiet on Monday and Tuesday and then from midweek and on, sentiment was risk-off due to the Trump/North Korea war of words. The USD is down on the week. Equities down significantly all around the world. Gold rises. 10 Year yields are down in Germany, UK and US. The JPY strengthens significantly. All classic risk-off stuff. EUR consolidated. GBP hits support. Commodity currencies down over the week.

Trading Plan

Two trades closed over the week. Trade 50 (EURUSD long) and Trade 51 (Dax30 long) both close for a loss of 0.5% and 0.52% respectively. Month-to-date performance is -1.02% and year-to-date performance is +10.8%.

Weekly Forex Outlook – Week Commencing 7th August 2017

Economic Calendar

Over the weekend:

All quiet.

In the news:

UK seeks to convince EU it is ready to advance Brexit talks

Economic Calendar

Monday – JPY Prelim GDP; CNY Industrial Production

Tuesday – AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes; GBP CPI; USD Retail Sales

Wednesday – GBP Average Earnings Index; EUR Flash GDP; FOMC Meeting Minutes

Thursday – GBP Retail Sales; EUR Final CPI

Friday – CAD CPI and Retail Sales

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For VIP Club members, this commentary is augmented with a video where I discuss the Trading Plan for the forthcoming week. If you would like a free one month trial to the VIP Club you can find out more HERE.

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Here is your Weekly Review and Outlook video.

I discuss last week’s trades at 3:50 and this week’s trading plan at 10:35.

You can download the video HERE. If it starts to play in your browser, right click on it and select “save video as” or similar and it will download to your machine.

The themes for this week’s trading can be found HERE.

Profiles are HERE (Trades) and HERE (Dashboard).


There is an archive of all VIP Club member’s content on the VIP Club page.

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