Weekly Review and Outlook 15th August 2016

Mark NugentAug 2016, Trading Plan

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Weekly Review for Week Commencing 8th August 2016

Chinese trade balance looked good but the underlying figures showed weak exports and even weaker imports. UK Manufacturing Production disappointed. RBA Governor Stevens said the economy needed fiscal help from the government. Crude oil inventories soared. The RBNZ reduced rates by 25 basis points as expected and signaled more cutting to come. The NZD rose to the irritation of the central bank. NZ Retail Sales soared. German GDP beat expectation. US Retail Sales disappointed.

Equities rose around the world with the S&P500, Dow30 and Nasdaq all closing at all-time highs. The UK 10 year gilt yields hit an all-time low.

Oil rebounded a bit, moving through the 200, 100 and 50 Moving Average lines.

The USD index was directionless, as were the Euro and JPY. The GBP index reached support at all-time lows. CAD rose with oil and the AUD and NZD continued to rise despite expectations of further rate reductions.

Trading was thin due to holidays. A GBPUSD trade was exited at breakeven. A Euro50 short is currently underwater and near the stop.

Weekly Outlook for Week Commencing 15th August 2016

The calendar this week will yield the first major post-Brexit vote economic data from the UK: CPI on Tuesday; Average Earnings on Wednesday and Retail Sales on Thursday. This will provide some currency movement I’ll bet. Monetary Policy Minutes from RBA on Tuesday will be interesting. Core CPI from the US will attract attention as will the FOMC Minutes on Thursday. We round the week off with Core CPI and Core Retail Sales in Canada.

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Here is your Weekly Review and Outlook video. I start to discuss last week’s trades at 6:30 and this week’s Trading Plan at 16:30.


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