Weekly Review and Outlook 16th January 2017

Mark Nugent Jan 2017, Trading Plan

Weekly Forex Review – Week Commencing 9th January 2017

Economic Calendar

Monday

Monday was quiet with no Tier I data.

Fed’s Rosengren (Soft Hawk, Non-Voter) says that a positive surprise could see inflation overshoot and urges the Fed to begin a balance sheet debate. (Newswires) This is a reference to QE, specifically the unwinding of QE by no longer re-investing in the market when bonds previously bought come to maturity and/or by simply selling currently held bonds. This could have a major depressive effect on US equities and would strengthen the USD.

Tuesday

Early Tuesday saw AUD Retail Sales m/m miss (0.2% vs 0.4%).

Wednesday

Trump Press conference:

• The key reaction was a sell-off in the USD, as Trump failed to mention any fiscal stimulus or the economy
• Stocks were choppy but ended the session in marginal positive territory – as higher crude prices lent some support
• Focus fell upon recent BuzzFeed allegations, but criticism towards pharma companies caused a selloff in the health-care sector, particularly biotech stocks

Thursday

Friday

US Core Retails Sales disappointed (0.2% vs 0.5%) and headline Retail Sales exceeded expectation (0.6% vs 0.5%).

Market Reaction

USD takes a bit if a dip after Trump fails to mention fiscal stimulus at Wednesday’s press conference. Global shares are buoyant. The EUR consolidate4s and the JPY strengthens as the USD weakens. The GBP falls on increasing “hard Brexit” talk. Oil and CAD consolidate.

Trading Plan

I did not trade last week.

Weekly Forex Outlook – Week Commencing 16th January 2017

Over the weekend/early today:

Focus for FX markets was on GBP which hit a 2-month low after reports that UK PM May is to unveil plans for a hard Brexit at her speech on Tuesday.

Economic Calendar

Mon –
Tues – UK CPI; UK PM Teresa May speaks about Brexit plans.
Wed – UK Average Earnings; US Core and Headline CPI; CAD Rate Statement
Thurs – EUR Minimum Bid Rate and Press Conference
Fri – Trump Inauguaration (noon, EST); UK Retail Sales; CAD CPI and Retail Sales

Financial News

UK said to seek to calm investors after May’s Brexit speech

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