Weekly Review and Outlook 19th December 2016

Mark NugentDec 2016, Trading Plan

Weekly Forex Review – Week Commencing 12th December 2016

Economic Calendar


Monday – no significant news.


UK CPI y/y beat expectation (1.2% vs 1.1%).


UK Average Earnings beat expectations (2.5% vs 2.3%) and the prior figure revised upwards. In the US, both Core and Headline Retail Sales missed (Core: 0.2% vs 0.4% and Headline: 0.1% vs 0.3%). The Fed hiked the Fed Funds Rate by 25 basis points as expected. The vote was unanimous. They also predicted 3 more hikes in 2017 vs 2 previously. Credit Suisse economist stated RBA could have to reduce rates as many as 3 more times to battle against dramatic deleveraging amid overgeared conditions of Australian households. (Newswires)


UK Retail Sales on track (0.2% vs 0.2%). Bank of England kept rates at 0.25% the Asset Purchase Facility at GBP435b. Both votes were unanimous. BoE Governor Carney says it is still likely that the Bank will overshoot its CPI target later in 2017 and it has limited tolerance for above-target CPI. US Headline and Core CPI m/m met expectations at 0.2%.


Nothing of note.

Market Reaction

The USD continues to climb over the week and is joined by the Nasdaq which also rises over the week. The US 10 year treasury continues to sell off and yield rises. The JPY weakens over the week. The S&P500 and the Dow30 are flat. UK equities are flat as the Euro50 and Japan 225 grind upwards. Oil is slightly up on the Friday 9th December close and CAD goes sideways. The GBP consolidates as does the EUR. In essence, we have a slight continuation/consolidation of the post-US election positive sentiment.

Trading Plan

One trade closed last week: Trade 84 (Japan 225) for a gain of 1 x risk equal to +0.52%. MTD performance is +2.03% and YTD is +35.2%.

Weekly Forex Outlook – Week Commencing 19th December 2016

Over the weekend/early today: Trade 83 closed in the early hours of Monday: (USDJPY long) for 2 x risk equal to + 1.0% taking MTD performance to +3.04% and YTD to +36.6%.

Economic Calendar

Mon –
Tues – AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Mins; BOJ Rate and Monetary Policy Statement
Thurs – CAD Headline and Core Retail Sales and CPI; US Final GDP and Core PCE Price Index

Financial News

Oil investors optimistic

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