Weekly Review and Outlook 20th February 2017

Mark NugentFeb 2017, Trading Plan

Weekly Forex Review – Week Commencing 13th February 2017

Economic Calendar

Monday

Chinese CPI exceeded expectations (2.5% vs 2.4%).

US Senate confirmed Steven Mnuchin as Treasury Secretary by 53-47 vote, while US President Trump stated that the new Treasury Secretary will fight for middle class tax reductions and manufacturing jobs. (Newswires)

Tuesday

Early today, UK CPI y/y missed at 1.8% vs 1.9%. Core CPI y/y also missed (1.6% vs 1.7%).

Wednesday

Early today we saw UK Average Earnings Index 3m/y missed (2.6% vs 2.8%). In the US, Headline and Core CPI m/m and also Retail Sales m/m all beat expectations.

Thursday

NZ Retail Sales q/q missed at 0.8% vs expectation of 1.1%. Core also missed.

Friday

Early today saw UK Retail Sales missed badly at -0.3% vs expectation of 1.0% but forecast accuracy is very poor. This has not stopped the GBP from falling.

Trump’s ad libbed 90 minute unscheduled press conference caused an amount of bewilderment as he seeems to be back in campaigning mode.

Market Reaction

The USD was essentially flat on the week with a strange move down on Wednesday despite Yellen’s bullishness. Global equities continued to rise with new highs made in the US and the UK (FTSE250), the exception being the Japan225 which was down on the week on strong JPY and problems at Toshiba. The EUR was flat on the week , the GBP was down and the JPY strengthened over the week despite weakening at the start.

Trading Plan

Trade 5 (EURUSD short) closed for a gain of +0.94%. Trade 6 (USDJPY long) closed at breakeven. Trade 8 (EURGBP long) closed for a loss of 0.5%. Trade 9 (Euro50 short) closed at breakeven. As of market close on Friday night, I remain in Trade 3, 7 and 10. Trade 3 (Japan 225 long) is just positive with stop at breakeven. Trade 7 (S&P500 long) has 2x risk locked in and another potential 0.5 x risk at the current price. Trade 10 (EURUSD short) with stop at original position and the price currently in the money.

Weekly Forex Outlook – Week Commencing 20th January 2017

Economic Calendar

Mon –
Tues – AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes; RBA Gov Lowe speaks
Wed – CAD Retail Sales; FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thurs – RBA Gov Lowe speaks
Fri – CAD CPI

Financial News

South Africa’s political woes couldn’t come at a worse time for its troubled economy analysts say

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Here is your Weekly Review and Outlook video.

Profiles for this week’s trading ideas can be found HERE. The 2017 Forex Strategy spreadsheet can be found HERE. I discuss last week’s closed trades at 8:20 and this week’s trading plan at 13:30. You can download the video HERE. If it starts to play in your browser, right click on it and select “save video as” or similar and it will download to your machine.


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